The U.S. men’s national team needs some help Thursday as well as a historic win in Mexico if it wants to qualify with two games to spare.
Entering the final window of Concacaf World Cup qualifying, the U.S. men’s national team’s path to Qatar is clear.
While the USMNT controls its qualifying destiny, there are several scenarios in which the U.S. can qualify this week. But on Thursday, only one exists, and it starts with a historic win over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca.
The U.S. has never defeated El Tri in a World Cup qualifier in Mexico and has never won four straight games against Mexico in the rivalry’s history. However, even with a win, the USMNT will still need some help to qualify Thursday before its final two qualifiers.
Along with a win in Mexico City, the U.S. needs Panama to lose at home to last-place Honduras, while Costa Rica must also draw or lose at home to undefeated Canada. Those results would see the U.S. clinch a spot in Qatar with two games to spare.
Currently, both Mexico and the U.S. are four points ahead of fourth-placed Panama and five ahead of fifth-place Costa Rica in the Concacaf standings, meaning Mexico’s scenario to qualify Thursday night is identical: beat the U.S., get the same amount of outside help. The top three teams in Concacaf’s Octagonal will qualify for November’s World Cup, while the fourth-place nation will participate in June’s intercontinental playoff against the representative from Oceania.
If the U.S. loses or draws against Mexico, qualification could come with a win in Sunday’s home match against Panama in Orlando, but the scenarios will evolve depending on what happens in the other matches Thursday night. The U.S. closes out its qualifying campaign with a trip to Costa Rica—where it has never won a qualifier—next Wednesday. A win over Panama would guarantee, at worst, a fourth-place finish, and it could be enough on its own to claim an automatic berth.
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