Highlights and lowlights from a recent SI Fantasy staff 10-team PPR mock draft.
In a 10-team fantasy league, every roster seems that much better since there are two fewer players drafted each round than in a 12-teamer. The trickle-down effect is that the scoring differentials at each position interval (i.e. starting QB1s range from QB1 to QB10, or RB2s range from RB11 to RB20) are smaller.
Point being, in a 12-team league, the advantage gained from having the assumed TE1, Travis Kelce, is a larger advantage because the “worst” starting TE, TE12 Mike Gesicki, casts a wider range than the “worst” starting TE in a 10-teamer, TE10 Dawson Knox. All of this existing in a vacuum because we know it won't perfectly play out that way, it's just important to understand this conceptually.
With that ideal in mind, let's take a closer look at a recent SI Fantasy staff 10-team PPR mock draft.
Best Steals
QBs Jalen Hurts, PHI (9.06) and Trey Lance, SF (12.05)
Waiting for a QB is always the mantra. Our resident fantasy guru Shawn Childs got both of these options at a steep discount. Hurts generally is the sixth or seventh QB off the board and while he was the seventh QB drafted, since Josh Allen wasn't picked until Round 5, all subsequent QBs were pushed down a little further. Do I believe Hurts or Lance will have a better year than Matthew Stafford? Probably not, assuming his elbow issue turns into a non-issue. Do I believe Hurts will be better than Tom Brady? That's probably a stretch, too. Maybe the consensus of both Hurts and Lance is a bit too optimistic, but we don't know how the season will play out. We only know the hive has reached a consensus that mirrors how this draft played out. We only can know that Shawn got really great values on both quarterbacks.
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RB Brian Robinson, WAS (13.09)
In hindsight, this could be a league-winner. Or it could be an example of how not to fall for coach-speak. Antonio Gibson may be on the outs as Robinson has seen lots of playing time and production in the preseason. The Commanders may not possess much of an offense, but a volume of opportunity could be laid at this rookie's feet. Snagging a potential fantasy RB2 with the second-to-last pick has the potential to be huge.
RB Chase Edmonds, MIA (7.03)
There are a lot of new moving parts in the Miami offense and forgotten among them is Edmonds. Now entering what is his third consecutive should-be-a-sleeper season, we've all probably grown too impatient with the 26-year-old back. I suppose you could argue that we need to also worry about Raheem Mostert, who came over from the 49ers with new head coach Mike McDaniel. We need to worry about Sony Michel, who is still a thing apparently. Edmonds is the better all-around player and has Austin Ekeler levels of potential as both a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Honorable mentions: RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (8.08); WR Darnell Mooney (8.09); RB Damien Harris, NE (9.05); RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL (6.10); QB Russell Wilson, DEN (10.09); QB Dak Prescott, DAL (11.05); RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (6.07)
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Worst Reaches
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (12.10)
Nothing makes me happier than punting the tight end position. With 12 total TEs selected in this draft, Jordan being the final one picked at 12.10, there's still a bevy of sleeper-caliber options available. Senior editor Craig Ellenport snagged Cole Kmet at 9.01 and entering his third season, he's a popular sleeper candidate. While Craig was likely just locked-in to the idea of getting a backup tight end here, so I won't fault him for picking another player he likely feels is undervalued, the problem is just the player. Jordan is a 2021 fifth-round pick out of Miami with length and above-average athleticism. I think of him like a poor man's Eric Ebron. Jordan has spotty hands and plays for an offense I'm not that excited about. He finished with 20 catches for 178 yards and three scores after earning partial playing time in the second half of the season. So who was still available when Jordan was picked? Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith, Albert Okwuegbunam, David Njoku and the list goes on. All of whom would've been safer choices with more upside.
WR Adam Thielen, MIN (6.09)
You know in his prime, Thielen was a bad dude. Our figurative bell-cow stud running back Michael Fabiano took the 32-year-old receiver about 10 rounds too early for my tastes. All good things must come to an end since Thielen's prime was about four years ago.
I can't pound the table hard enough about avoiding players with touchdown-dependency. You can't count on it. While there are of course players who are just better in the red zone than the average, Thielen is an egregious example of who to steer clear of as he's scored 24 touchdowns over the last two seasons, 10 in 2021. And even those 10 were a lightning striking twice outcome. The man is basically single-handedly stifling the fantasy potential of Irv Smith Jr. since he's seeing a disproportionate number of red-zone looks! Not even just the red zone, Kirk Cousins shows a great rapport with him from inside the 5-yard line. With a hopefully healthier Dalvin Cook, an emerging K.J. Osborn, a “this time it's happening” Smith and Justin Jefferson, arguably the best receiver in the league, there's no way Thielen scores 10-plus touchdowns again, right? With just 67 receptions and 726 yards in 13 games a year ago, I'm not on board at this price point.
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WRs Hunter Renfrow, LV (10.02) and Treylon Burks, TEN (11.09)
After giving my colleagues Craig and Michael a hard time, I'm starting with the man in the mirror. Well, finishing in this case since we're nearing the end of the article. This isn't so much a critique on the merits of Renfrow and Burks. Renfrow is the bigger reach of the two.
No, this is a teachable moment. I was distracted during the draft and didn't notice it was my pick until there were about five seconds left. I scrambled and nobody made sense to me in the first section of Sleeper's player list. Renfrow was plucked for no rhyme or reason. Just the name I happened to click. Then, compounding my mistake, I was so frustrated with missing the clock, I almost missed it again and selected Burks at the last second. To add insult to injury, with my next pick (11.09), my colleague Kyle Wood selected Steelers rookie WR George Pickens at 11.10. I just wrote what seems like my 10th article hyping Pickens a few days ago. So I missed out on my preferred player—twice.
I botched it. It should go without saying that you have to maintain a player queue for these sorts of situations. You don't need to be dialed-in like you're guarding the nuclear codes. But be a good drafter, be a good leaguemate. Be mindful of your decisions. Take the extra moment. Plan out some kind of strategy that you believe in. Not paying attention, not thinking ahead, making snap decisions… That's all right down the line on the list of “how not to draft.” Be better than I was, my friends.
Dishonorable mentions: WR Nico Collins, HOU (12.08); WR Joshua Palmer, LAC (13.07); RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (11.08); RB Rachaad White, TB (10.10); WR Michael Gallup, DAL (12.04); WR DeAndre Hopkins, ARI (9.04)
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