Breaking down the odds and viability of every Super Bowl player prop bet for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
After opening as the second overall betting choice, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is now listed as the co-betting favorite (+120) to win Super Bowl LVII MVP honors with Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts at SI Sportsbook.
In addition to the extremely popular MVP futures market, bettors find a plethora of wagering options involving the NFL’s best quarterback, who leads the Chiefs into a Super Bowl showdown with the Eagles piloting the league’s top passing (297.8 yards per game) and scoring (29.2 points per game) offense.
Let’s dive into player proposition markets for Kansas City’s talented leader!
Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
Over 1.5 (-250) | Under 1.5 (+150)
Patrick Mahomes finished first among all quarterbacks in the regular season with 41 passing touchdowns. In Super Bowl LVII, he will encounter a Philadelphia pass defense that has allowed only 21 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. In 13 career postseason games, the league’s best signal-caller has averaged 2.46 touchdown passes per game thanks to ranking eighth in NFL playoff history. On Sunday, Mahomes will break a tie with Dan Marino (32) and set his sights on Ben Roethlisberger, who finished his career with 37. The star gun-slinger will have his work cut out to overtake Tom Brady, who sits atop the list with an astounding 88 touchdown passes. The juice on this market is too prohibitive, although Mahomes has exceeded this projection in seven of his last 10 games (70%).
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Over 290.5 (-120) | Under 290.5 (-125)
The soon-to-be-named league MVP threw for the most yards (5,250) in his career in the regular season. Thanks to leading the NFL with an average of 308.8 passing yards per game this regular season, bettors find a projection that will only rise when kickoff arrives. Piloting the league’s top-ranked passing offense, Mahomes will now face Philadelphia’s stout pass defense that surrendered the second-fewest passing yards per game (179.8) in the regular season to opposing quarterbacks. In his postseason career, Mahomes has averaged 300.2 passing yards per contest, and despite nursing an ankle injury, this is a number he will need to surpass if the Chiefs have any hopes of emerging victorious.
Patrick Mahomes Completions
Over 25.5 (-105) | Under 25.5 (-138)
The NFL’s best passer finds an inflated projection regarding his total completions in Super Bowl LVII. Bettors at SI Sportsbook find oddsmakers listing Mahomes with an over/under of 25.5 total completions – a number he outperformed only eight times in 17 regular season games (47%). Overall, in his postseason career, Mahomes has stepped up his accuracy going beyond this demand in eight of 13 playoff games (61.5%). However, facing the Eagles’ secondary is not a favorable matchup as the ‘Birds are only allowing 19.58 completions per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, which has resulted in a total of only three passers in 19 games (15.8%) completing more than 25 passes in a game.
Patrick Mahomes Attempts
Over 38.5 (-133) | Under 38.5 (-111)
This market immediately grabbed the attention of respected money in Vegas. Mahomes has surpassed 38.5 passing attempts in just nine of 19 games this season (47.4%) while only beating this projection in six of 13 playoff games (46%). However, let’s focus on his previous two Super Bowl appearances. Andy Reid has dialed up game plans focusing heavily on Mahomes’ passing ability, attempting 42 passes in Super Bowl LIV followed by 49 in Super Bowl LV. In the AFC Championship, Mahomes attempted 43 passes against Cincinnati, opting to remain in the pocket due to his ankle. The outcome of this game likely rests upon Mahomes’ right arm, resulting in a market bettors need to invest in.
Patrick Mahomes Interceptions
Over 0.5 (-118) | Under 0.5 (-133)
Mahomes threw 12 interceptions in the regular season but has not allowed a pass to land in the hands of the opposition in 73 pass attempts this postseason. The leader of the Kansas City offense threw at least one interception in nine of 19 games this season while throwing at least one pick in four of 13 career playoff games. As we highlighted above, Mahomes has averaged 45.5 passing attempts in two previous Super Bowls, with the heavy volume resulting in exactly two interceptions in each game. The Eagles defense, which tied for fourth in the NFL with 17 regular season interceptions, has added one additional pick in both of their two playoff matchups.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion
Over 37.5 (-125) | Under 37.5 (-118)
This market is a tough read due to the status of the beat-up Kansas City wide receiving corps. On the year, Mahomes has completed a pass eclipsing this projection of 37.5 yards in 12 of 19 games (63.2%). A deeper dive reveals that Mahomes has cashed to the over at this number in nine of 13 playoff games (69.2%) but has failed to do so in both postseason games this year. However, we must note that Mahomes missed considerable time in the AFC Divisional matchup with Jacksonville due to his ankle injury. In the AFC Championship, the longest completion was a 29-yard connection with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Chiefs were forced to play short-handed much of the game after starting wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman were forced to leave the game due to injury. If all three miss Super Bowl LVII, this projection will likely be hard for Mahomes to surpass, as only 3 of the 131 receptions by Travis Kelce have gone beyond this projection.
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Over 20.5 (-115) | Under 20.5 (-120)
Patrick Mahomes Passing + Rushing Yards
Over 314.5 (-120) | Under 314.5 (-120)
Due to his injured ankle, this market should be a hard pass for all bettors. In the AFC Championship, Mahomes gained eight rushing yards, but this market has too much variance due to the health of his injured ankle.
Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Markets
First TD Scorer +2800 | Last TD Scorer +3000 | Anytime TD +460
Mahomes has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of the four previous postseasons. In his first 11 playoff games, Mahomes found the end zone five times, but his ankle injury has prevented his ability to extend that streak to five thus far this postseason. In 19 games this season, Daniel Jones was the only opposing quarterback to score a rushing touchdown against the Philadelphia defense, as the dual-threat signal-caller found paydirt once in each regular season matchup. From a historical look, Mahomes is just one of 10 quarterbacks to score a rushing touchdown in Super Bowl history, when he scored the first touchdown in Super Bowl LIV from one yard out.
