Fantasy Baseball 2023: First-Round Breakdown

As she prepares to draft in an experts league, Jen Piacenti examines how the first round might go.

Super Bowl Sunday has come and gone, pitchers and catchers have reported. It is officially fantasy baseball season.

Let’s get to work.

In preparation for my LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) expert league draft next week, I started by making my own first-round rankings. Here is what I came up with and how I would potentially start a build for a 5X5 roto league with standard categories based on each first-round selection.

Early First Round

Picks 1-4 can vary, but all of them should offer a very solid floor. Here is how I am valuing them, working backward from how I would start a build.

1. SS Trea Turner
Trea Turner logged 101 runs and 100 RBIs while also batting .298 with 21 homers and 27 stolen bases in 2022. He is a true five-category player, and assuming the new base running rules are an advantage for the runner, his elite power and speed combo makes him an easy pick for the 1.01. He’s no longer with the Dodgers, but with the Phillies he will still be batting atop a lineup that scored the seventh-most runs per game last season – and ran more aggressively, logging the fifth-most stolen bases. I don’t see how you pass on Turner here, and coming back around you can likely grab 1B Paul Goldschmidt and also take a shot on P Jacob deGrom on the turn. 

2. 3B Jose Ramirez
Many analysts have Aaron Judge or Ronald Acuna here, and those are two excellent choices, but in my drafts I will take Ramirez here every time. Why? Two words: Positional scarcity. Not only is Ramairez a solid five-category player, consistently delivering double-digit home runs and steals and triple-digit RBIs, it feels like this position drops off a cliff quickly after Machado and Devers. I like the idea of setting it and forgetting it with Ramirez. If you take Ramirez at 1.02, both 1B Pete Alonso and SS Francisco Lindor could likely be there when your pick comes back around, and that’s a pretty solid infield to start your draft.

3. OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna is another five-category threat who has an elite power-speed combo with the potential for a 30/30 season. His max exit velocity and hard-hit rate remain in the upper percentile of the league, despite the fact he only hit 15 home runs last season. Acuna falls behind Ramirez for me because I have more questions about his durability and also because outfield is a much deeper position. Still, starting with Acuna should be a recipe for success. If you start with Acuna, you should be able to add 3B Rafael Devers or Sandy Alcantara on your next pick, followed by Austin Riley or Jacob deGrom in the next round. I really like that start.

4. OF Aaron Judge
Yes, Aaron Judge falls all the way to 1.04 for me. Why? I always hesitate after a player gets the bag, though it would be impossible to pass up Judge here if he falls to pick 4. He can put you so far out in front in both HRs and RBIs, and he also adds a little speed. Judge starts a potential build that could be followed by OF Michael Harris Jr. and SP Justin Verlander.

Middle first round

All four of these players present a good floor with very high potential.

5. OF Julio Rodriguez
It makes me slightly nervous to put a second-year player here, as we could expect a sophomore slump, but Rodriguez shows all the underlying signs of being a true superstar. He hits the ball as hard as Acuna, but his sprint speed is even faster. Rodriguez is a five-category player who should log you 30/30 if he plays a full 162 games. The AL ROY hit 25 homers and stole 25 bases on his way to the award. His 32 dingers in the first round of the Home Run Derby also set a new MLB record among rookies. He’s expected to lead off for the Mariners, and not only should he benefit from the new base running rules, he should rack up some counting stats in the runs category. If you take Rodriguez here, 1B Pete Alonso or SP Sandy Alcantara could be a great next pick with 3B Austin Riley likely available in the following round.

6. OF Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez is almost everything Aaron Judge is, but in a better lineup. Not only is he going to rack up a ton of RBIs, teams can’t just pitch around him. You’ll sacrifice some speed, but the upside is tremendous. Oh, and did I mention Alvarez is one of the players who could benefit most from banning the shift? Lefties in general should see a boost, but specifically Alvarez, who hit only .167 against the shift. Considering he still ended up with a .306 BA in 2022, the prospect is pretty enticing. Next up you can take 3B Manny Machado to start chipping away at those SBs, then Jose Altuve can help at a thin 2B position.

7. OF Kyle Tucker
Two Astros in a row, both lefty outfielders, and they could easily swap places. Tucker is another one of the players that could benefit most from banning the shift. Tucker hit 139 ground balls into the shift for a .165 batting average in 2022. Despite that, and batting sixth in the lineup for much of the season, Tucker finished with 30 home runs, 107 RBIs and 25 stolen bases. The biggest concerns about Tucker are that he bats lower in the lineup and that his sprint speed is bottom 32% of the league. However, he still somehow continues to find success on the bases. What you give up in batting average, you should get back in stolen bases with the new rules that should favor runners. He’s also in a contract year, so he should be playing with a purpose. You can add OF Mike Trout or SS Fernando Tatis Jr. in the next round and follow that with NL ROY SP Spencer Strider in Round 3.

8. OF Juan Soto
Can you believe Juan Soto is only 24 years old? Though 2022 was a down year for the

outfielder, he still delivered 27 home runs and scored 93 runs. The .242 BA was likely an anomaly for a hitter who had averaged .309 per season previous to 2022. His walk rate, chase rate and exit velocity all remain elite, and the further he falls in drafts the more excited I am. I like him a little better in OBP leagues, but it’s hard to pass him up here. After Soto, you should be able to grab SS Bo Bichette and SP Aaron Nola, and that looks like a really solid start to me.

Back end of first round

I find the back end of the first round to have a more reliable floor, and if I get to choose my draft spot, spots 10-12 are most appealing to me.

9. DH Shohei Ohtani
This ranking is assuming Ohtani will be used as a pure hitter, and of course this can vary by league. The reason Ohtani isn’t higher, despite the fact that he can easily hit 30-plus homers, bat .275 and get you double-digit steals, is because he has very little positional flexibility. Seems like a crazy thing to say about the game’s only two-way player, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, it’s strange but true. With Ohtani’s only hitting eligibility at DH, you have no ability to maneuver as the inevitable injury bug bites during the season. If you start with Ohtani here, next up you could be able to select SP Gerrit Cole or SP Corbin Burnes in Round 2, with 3B Nolan Arenado or RP Emmanuel Clase in Round 3.

10. OF Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts hit for more power in 2022 than he had in any previous season, with 35 home runs for the Dodgers. Throw in double-digit steals, a career .293 BA and the fact that he plays for the team that scored the most runs in the MLB last year, and Betts is an excellent pick at 1.10. Mookie’s 117 runs scored were tied with teammate 1B Freddie Freeman for second after only Judge. If you take Betts here, you can potentially grab OF Mike Trout and shore up your power in Round 2, and then in Round 3 you could grab an elite closer in RP Edwin Diaz.

11. 1B Freddie Freeman
Freeman continues to deliver even on the West Coast. I already talked about his 117 runs scored, but he also hit .325, stole 13 bases and swatted 21 home runs. Only Jeff McNeil had a higher batting average last season. If you take Freeman here, with the BA security you can afford to grab a power hitter that doesn’t hit for average later (Joey Gallo, Eugenio Suarez or Joc Pederson, for example), plus you’ll get some speed, too. Both Freeman and Betts at the top of this lineup are first-round picks for me. If you grab Freeman here, you can potentially get Bobby Witt Jr., who will cover all five categories and gives you positional flexibility at 3B and SS, on the turn. In Round 3, you can get an elite reliever in Emmanuel Clase or grab a SP like Spender Strider or Shane McClanahan.

12. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Finally, my 1.12. I feel it. Guerrero is going to have another big year. Though his numbers may have slightly underwhelmed last season based on where he was drafted, he still hit 32 home runs with 97 RBIs and 90 runs scored. His max exit velocity is in the 99th percentile of the league and his 50.4% hard-hit rate is in the 96th percentile. Plus, he’s only 23. The Blue Jays’ offense scored the fourth-most runs in the MLB last season. I love picking on the wheel, and it’s possible you could even get Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts or Shohei Ohtani to pair with Vlad. If you want to grab a pitcher, Corbin Burnes is likely there to anchor your staff. In Round 3, you could grab SP Brandon Woodruff or even SP Shane McClanahan or pivot to 3B Nolan Arenado.