A handful of backup quarterbacks played in Week 13, but that didn’t stop teams from finding the end zone to continue the surge in points scored in recent weeks.
Jake Browning’s Bengals beat the Jaguars, 34–31. Gardner Minshew’s Colts defeated the Titans, 31–28. Last week, seven games ended with a total line of 50 points or more (Packers-Chiefs fell short with 46 points).
Points are being scored, despite the growing number of injured quarterbacks. Perhaps there would be more touchdowns recorded if the Jets and Patriots had decent offenses—both were held to eight points or less in losses last week.
For those keeping track, I had a nice Week 13 with a 4–1 record. Perhaps this is finally the week I go a perfect 5–0.
Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 14 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Colts (7–5) at Bengals (6–6)
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- Over/Under: 43.5
- Prediction: Over
Perhaps the oddsmakers didn’t notice how well Minshew and Browning played last week or refuse to believe they could do it again. I’m betting these two teams led by backup quarterbacks will continue scoring in Week 14. The Bengals’ defense has struggled most of the season with issues against the run, allowing 133.9 rushing yards per game. The Colts likely won’t have star running back Jonathan Taylor because of injury, but they can lean on workhorse Zack Moss, who has 723 rushing yards this season. If the Colts get the ground game going, that will allow Minshew to look downfield to wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. Browning also has plenty of weapons with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The Bengals might not have much trouble moving upfield against a Colts’ defense that has been inconsistent this season. Indianapolis is allowing 24.7 points per game, which ranked 28th in the NFL heading into Week 14.
2. Buccaneers (5–7) at Falcons (6–6)
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Prediction: Under
The Bengals and Colts, with their backup quarterbacks, probably would be leading the NFC South if they resided in the subpar division. Baker Mayfield might be the best quarterback in the NFC South this season, and that says plenty about the state of the division. Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans are capable of blowing up this under bet, but the Falcons’ defense has turned it around after a rough stretch earlier this season. There’s not much to brag about the Falcons holding the Jets to eight points last week, but it was impressive how they held the Saints to 15 points the week prior for the start of their two-game winning streak. Also, the Buccaneers haven’t scored more than 21 points since they dropped 37 in the Week 9 loss against the Texans. Yes, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed 39 points to the Texans, but C.J. Stroud doesn’t play for the Falcons. Desmond Ridder continues to have turnover issues and has been held under 200 passing yards since returning as the starter two games ago.
3. 49ers (9–3) at Seahawks (6–6)
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Prediction: Over
Touchdowns will pile up for this NFC West clash. The Seahawks found their offensive stride last week and generated 35 points against a tough Cowboys’ defense on the road. The 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut throughout their four-game winning streak, averaging 33.5 points per game during that span. It wasn’t that long ago when Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey torched the Seahawks in a 31–13 win on Thanksgiving night. The Seahawks’ defense has plenty of talent, but they have been a disappointment and just allowed 41 points to the Cowboys last week. Expect the 49ers to continue their offensive dominance and for the Seahawks to do their part with this over bet. The receiving trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could give the 49ers’ thin secondary plenty of problems Sunday.
4. Broncos (6–6) at Chargers (5–7)
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Prediction: Under
Despite having Justin Herbert, the Chargers have been held to 10 points or less in their past two games against the Patriots and Ravens. Herbert hasn’t had much help outside of Keenan Allen, who’s having a stellar 2023 season. Running back Austin Ekeler has struggled and the offensive line has regressed this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Broncos’ opportunistic defense forces Herbert into a few turnovers. Denver also has the luxury of throwing All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II on Allen, which will force the Chargers’ inexperienced wide receivers to step up. The Broncos recently had their five-game winning streak snapped, but they didn’t get back in the postseason race because of a high-scoring offense. Russell Wilson has gotten by with a productive rushing attack and throwing the ball to Courtland Sutton. But they’re a slow-moving offense, averaging 21.9 points per game. Also, the Chargers’ defense has played better in recent weeks, including holding the Ravens to 20 points two weeks ago.
5. Titans (4–8) at Dolphins (9–3)
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Prediction: Over
The Dolphins nearly had more than 46.5 points on their own last week after crushing the Commanders, 45–15. Expect a similar game, with the Dolphins jumping to an early double-digit lead before ending the game with 30-plus points and another dominant win against a losing team. Don’t expect many points from the Titans, but they had 28 points in the overtime loss to the Colts last week. The Titans are a decent offense when they get Derrick Henry going early in games. Henry rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries against the Colts. He exited early to be evaluated for a potential concussion, but coach Mike Vrabel announced Henry isn’t in the concussion protocol. Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis has played well at times and has shown chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins since taking over as the starter in Tennessee. But this bet is more about what Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa might do to a suspect Titans’ defense that might not have defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who injured his knee last week.
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