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The New York Jets (6-9) travel to face the Cleveland Browns (10-5) for Week 17’s Thursday Night Football matchup. The Jets have been eliminated from a postseason berth, while the Browns are currently in the playoff picture and second in the AFC North.
Both defenses have been among the better units in the NFL this season. The Browns have allowed an average of only 20 points per game to opponents this season, while the Jets have allowed only 21. Offensively, the Browns have been the far superior team, scoring 23 points per game this season, and erupting for an average of 29 points per game across the last three, thanks in large part to the spark veteran quarterback Joe Flacco helped ignite on offense. The game total for this one is set at 36.5 with the Browns favored by -7.5 at home.
Here’s how we are betting this Thursday Night’s player props.
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Breece Hall Player Prop Picks
Breece Hall over 31.5 receiving yards (-110)
Hall was targeted a whopping 16 times last week vs. the Commanders. He caught twelve of them for 96 yards in the Jets’ win. Trevor Siemian will start again Thursday, so we should expect the Jets’ running back to get plenty of checkdowns. Yes, the Browns defense is much tougher than the Commanders, but all the more reason for Semien to check down. The Browns have allowed an average of 35 receiving yards per game to running backs across the past four. Hall is averaging 5.6 targets per game this year and 8.3 yards per reception.
Amari Cooper Player Prop Picks
Amari Cooper over 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
Sauce Gardner is well aware of Amari Cooper’s 240 yard, two-touchdown game last Sunday, and he will certainly be in lockdown mode. Even still, it’s hard to deny the Flacco/Cooper connection. The veteran wideout has been targeted 37 times across the past three games for an average of more than 12 per game. Cooper exceeded this prop in each of those three contests and has exceeded it in nine of 15 games played this year. I’m willing to bet on the talent.
Garrett Wilson Player Prop Picks
Garrett Wilson over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)
Wilson was targeted 15 times by Siemian in Sunday’s win. Expect he will be heavily targeted again vs. the Browns who have allowed opposing wideouts to net 133 yards per game across the last four. Wilson has commanded a 45.7% air yards share for New York this season and he has double the targets of any other receiver. He’s averaging 63.9 yards per game this year and has exceeded this prop eleven times.
David Njoku Player Prop Picks
David Njoku anytime TD (+195)
The receiving prop is pretty high for Njoku, so I am shying away from taking a side. I do expect him to command a heavy target share, but his air yards share is less than half of Cooper’s and far less than Elijah Moore. For that reason, I am pivoting to a touchdown prop for the tight end. In four games with Flacco at QB, Njoku’s four touchdowns equate to a 40% team share. At a nearly two to one payout, that’s where I’ll take my chances. The Jets have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends this season, tied with the Rams for the second-most allowed.
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