The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs were here four years ago. The coaches were the same. The general managers were the same. The quarterback dynamic was, to a degree, similar, even if one of the teams swapped theirs out in the interim.
So is this Super Bowl LIV redux in Super Bowl LVIII truly more of the same?
Not exactly.
“I think the Niners are way more talented than the Chiefs, way more explosive than the Chiefs,” one AFC exec told me last week. “But the Chiefs have surprised me the last two weeks. I’ve never been a [Patrick] Mahomes hater, but you’re really seeing now why Mahomes is the dude. He’s risen to the occasion.”
Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports (left); Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports (right)
Which might lead you to believe this is Mahomes vs. the 49ers.
But that’s not it, either.
Where four years ago, you had two teams in a relatively similar state—balanced, young rosters aggressively built—you now have teams in different stages. The Chiefs have had to pay Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The 49ers have had to pay their galaxy of stars. For Kansas City, it’s meant getting a lot younger in some key spots. For San Francisco, it’s meant going young at quarterback.
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But here they both are, built differently than they were, which makes the accomplishment all the more a credit to how the two organizations are operated. So how will this one play out compared to the way things did in Miami in February 2020? Probably a little differently, regardless of the final result.
Here’s what we know digging into it …
• Between Jones and Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, there should be an opportunity for the Chiefs’ defensive front to win against a 49ers’ offensive line that’s really good but is also vulnerable. That said, there is a very clear way for San Francisco to combat that. “The combination of [Christian] McCaffrey, [Brandon] Aiyuk, Deebo [Samuel] and [George] Kittle is a lot for the Kansas City defense,” says a second AFC exec. “I don’t love the Niners O-line, but they don’t have a lot of plays where they’re waiting for 10 minutes for people to get open. I could see San Francisco moving it and scoring pretty easily. I don’t love the matchups for Kansas City.”
• Of course, the key to that will be the health of Samuel. And it’s in more ways than one. First, as our second AFC exec says, there is “how he can create so many explosive plays off simple s–t that you don’t have to block well. He has a lot of plays that take press off the quarterback and an O-line, [and] he can create 15–20 yards off nothing.” Then, there’s his impact in the run game, and not just when he’s carrying the ball. “With where they align Deebo, you have to take an extra guy out of the box to account for him,” says the first AFC exec. “Without him, now you have that extra player who can lean in a little more to play the run.”
• On the other side, Joe Thuney is dealing with an injury, the Chiefs’ tackles have been up and down, and a matchup with a 49ers defensive line that hasn’t played to its talent this season looms as a big swing factor. Plus, the Chiefs don’t have the threats on the outside to exploit the Niners’ secondary, affording DC Steve Wilks an opportunity to be aggressive with his rush plan. “To me, it’s, Can the Chiefs match the scoring?” says an NFC exec. “I know that sounds crazy, but it’s because I think San Francisco’s just more explosive offensively; Kansas City won by controlling the ball in Buffalo. Kansas City is a different team than they were, and that’s a byproduct of the Tyreek Hill trade, and taking all those picks and money, and putting them in the defense. It’s a different Chiefs team.” A third AFC exec adds, “Can they protect Mahomes? I think it’s another one where Mahomes has to be magical, because they don’t have the playmakers, so it’s him extending plays, and trying to create.”
• The x-factor for the Kansas City offense, then, could well become Travis Kelce, who limped through the season—and somehow has summoned a different level for the playoffs, getting closer to who he’d been before the injuries. “Kelce’s looked a lot better in the playoffs,” says the first AFC exec. “He looked like a shell of himself during the season. He and Mahomes are back on the same page. [Kelce had 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the AFC championship.] He’s figured out how he has to play, because of how limited they are at the skill positions, where he has to get open earlier.” So for San Francisco, it’d seem, that’d mean being able to take Kelce out from the snap, and force Mahomes to look elsewhere.
• Along those lines, whether the Niners can put a less-explosive Chiefs offense behind the sticks and off-schedule could loom large. The same, in fact, goes the other way—with a 49ers offense piloted by second-year man Brock Purdy having shown cracks when it’s playing from behind or in long yardage. That is one area where Kansas City’s defense could seize an edge. “It’s a more balanced Chiefs defense,” says the NFC exec. “Where in the past they were playing for the big play, the turnover, and trying to create a possession so the offense could stretch the lead, they’re playing with more balance now.”
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• As for Purdy? A big part of how this one goes relates, yes, back to the team around him. As the guys I spoke with saw it, if the 49ers can run the ball, and keep things manageable down-and-distance-wise, Purdy’s plenty good enough. “He’s got a really good team around him, he’s a capable quarterback on a good team, and with a team that believes in him,” says the NFC exec. “He’s had ups and downs, the weather got him. But he’s played well when they’ve needed him to play well.”
Which brings us back to Mahomes, and what he is, and can be going into this game.
In a lot of ways, this shapes up to be a chance for him to add to a growing legacy, in that winning with the group he has now would be much different than what he pulled off four years ago, or even last year. It’d be winning with less like Tom Brady habitually showed he could, and doing that on the biggest stage.
“Much like it was with Brady, if Mahomes is playing well, it’s just hard,” says our second AFC exec. “There’s a better than good chance he’s gonna outplay your quarterback, and when that happens, that team usually wins.”
“You’ve got a little David vs. Goliath here, with the Niners being Goliath,” says the third AFC exec. “But maybe Mahomes is Goliath.”
He looked like that Sunday.
The Super Bowl will give him the chance to do it again—and add something pretty significant to everything everyone’s been saying about him since that night in Miami four years ago.
