Here’s why the Chiefs’ record-setting tight end may struggle to hit his numbers vs. the Eagles.
In the AFC championship game, Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce climbed into second place all-time in NFL postseason receiving yards (1,467), moving ahead of Rob Gronkowski (1,389) and Julian Edelman (1,442). Arguably the best tight end to ever play the game, Kelce only trails Hall of Fame wideout Jerry Rice (2,245) for the most receiving yards in NFL playoff history.
Thus far in this year’s postseason, Kelce leads all players in receptions (21) and touchdowns (3), while only trailing Ja’Marr Chase (220) in overall receiving yards. However, despite his recent and historical postseason dominance, bettors in early wagering are fading his ability to produce in the matchup against Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII.
Let’s take a look at the betting movement involving Kelce’s player proposition markets just days away from kickoff.
MORE: Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LVII Betting Hub
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Travis Kelce Receptions
Over 6.5 (-161) | Under 6.5 (+110)
Kelce finished third in the NFL in receptions (110) in the regular season, which found the veteran tight end eclipsing 6.5 receptions in 9 of 19 games (47.4%). In this year’s postseason, Kelce is averaging 10.5 receptions per game, while averaging an impressive 7.5 receptions over a span of 17 career playoff games. The pass-catching talent will encounter an Eagles defense that is only surrendering 4.1 receptions per game to the position. Bettors originally found heavy juice (-140) on under 7.5, but thanks to strong steam fading his ability to reach that projection, oddsmakers dropped his reception total to 6.5 (-161) on Tuesday morning. If the Chiefs are short-handed on the outside at the wide receiver position, Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will likely dial up double- or even triple-team coverage on Kelce – forcing Mahomes away from his favorite target.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Over 79.5 (-115) | Under 79.5 (-115)
Kansas City’s best receiving target has been dominant in the playoffs, posting team highs in receptions (21), receiving yards (176) and touchdowns (3). The star tight end is a postseason star, averaging 86.3 receiving yards in 17 career playoff games. Specifically, in two previous Super Bowls, Kelce has averaged 88 yards per game, thanks to earning 16 targets from Patrick Mahomes. After going beyond this demand in 10 of 19 games (52.5%) this season, the sure-handed veteran will now face an unfavorable matchup against an Eagles pass defense that has not allowed a single opposing tight end to surpass 79.5 receiving yards in a game (regular season and playoffs). While only allowing 40.4 receiving yards to the position, a deeper dive reveals that only three opposing tight ends (Pat Freiermuth, 57; Chigoziem Okonkwo, 68; and Juwan Johnson, 62) have posted 50-plus receiving yards against Philadelphia all season.
Travis Kelce Longest Reception
Over 22.5 (-122) | Under 22.5 (-118)
Bettors at SI Sportsbook find oddsmakers listing Kelce with an over/under of 22.5 on his longest reception — a number he has outperformed an eye-popping nine times in 19 games (47.4%) this season. However, as we know, the postseason brings out the very best in Kelce as he has eclipsed this projection in nine of 17 playoff contests (52.9%) slightly raising his percentage to the over to more than a coin flip.
Travis Kelce Touchdown Markets
First TD Scorer +675 | Last TD Scorer +675 | Anytime TD -110
The “Anytime Touchdown” market finds Kelce listed with the shortest odds (-110) of any player to find the end zone in Super Bowl LVII. The star tight end, who has scored 15 touchdowns in 17 career playoff games, is tied with Gronkowski (15) while only trailing Rice (22) for the most in NFL postseason history. On Sunday, Kelce will encounter a stiff test against a Philadelphia pass defense that has only allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 19 games.
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