There were 22 pass-catchers who recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in 2022, a figure that’s pretty much in line with the average over the last decade. Since 2013, an average of 21.8 players have hit this mark every season.
Unsurprisingly, the two seasons with the fewest 1,000-yard receivers during this stretch occurred before the schedule expanded to 17 games (15 in 2017, 18 in 2020). When the extra game was introduced in 2021, 25 pass-catchers surpassed that mark, which is tied for the third-most over this period.
In a passing league, there’s quite a few receivers — and one tight end — who can be penciled in for this milestone (assuming good health), while many others pass-catchers are on the cusp. Let’s use SI Sportsbook’s odds for the regular-season receiving yards leader to get an idea of who will hit quadruple digits in 2023.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +550
It only took Jefferson nine weeks to hit 1,000 yards last year and he didn’t stop there. He finished with 1,809 yards, the sixth-most in a single season in NFL history. Jefferson, the 2022 receiving champ, now has the most receiving yards in his first three seasons ever and he’s finished no worse than fourth since he entered the league. The question isn’t whether Jefferson can hit 1,000 again; it’s more a matter of if he can be the first to 2,000.
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +700
A hip injury sidelined Chase for four games during his sophomore season and he still managed to break 1,000. His 87.2 yards per game was the seventh-best average in the NFL and it put him on pace for 1,482, even more than he had as a rookie. Chase led the league in targets per game in 2022 (11.2), so volume is not a concern. Chase could challenge Jefferson, his college teammate, for the receiving title this season.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +1000
Hill left the league’s best quarterback last year and posted the best statistical season of his career. Fielding passes from three different quarterbacks, he amassed 1,710 yards, the second-most in the NFL and the 11th-most ever. Had Tua Tagovailoa stayed healthy, perhaps Hill would have had a shot at his first receiving title.
Cooper Kupp, Rams
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +1100
Kupp looked primed to repeat his all-time 2021 numbers until an ankle injury knocked him out. Still, he tallied 812 yards across nine games last year. Kupp and Matthew Satfford are two of the only holdovers on offense from the ’21 Super Bowl-winning roster, and the gunslinger has nowhere else to funnel the football. The former triple-crown winner only has two seasons with 1,000 receiving yards to his name (2019, 2021) but what a year ’21 was: Kupp’s 1,947 yards are the second-most of all time.
A.J. Brown, Eagles
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +1600
Brown’s first year in Philadelphia was the best of his career. He racked up 1,496 yards, the fourth-most in the NFL, and he averaged a whopping 17 yards per catch, the third-highest mark. Brown helped unlock Jalen Hurts as a passer and Hurts in turn peppered Brown with 145 targets. Brown has now gone over 1,000 yards in three of his four seasons as a pro and the one time he didn’t (2021), he played just 13 games.
Davante Adams, Raiders
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +1800
Adams’s transition from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr last season was seamless and he should be just fine with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. All Adams has done is finish with at least 100 catches and 1,300 yards in three consecutive campaigns. There’s nothing stopping him from making it four in a row even as he enters his age-31 season.
Stefon Diggs, Bills
Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2000
After Josh Allen, Diggs is the heartbeat of Buffalo’s offense. Diggs has never finished with fewer than 1,200 receiving yards as a Bill and he had two more 1,000-yard seasons before that in Minnesota. That’s five years in a row that he’s hit this milestone. As the unquestioned top target for one of the game’s best passers, Diggs is well-positioned to make it six straight.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2000
Waddle’s involvement understandably took a hit when Hill arrived in Miami. He responded by nearly doubling his yards per catch average and he gained 341 more yards on 29 fewer receptions. Waddle began his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and showed that he can beat defenses in a variety of ways — 2023 will be no different.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2200
Kelce’s streak of 1,000-yard seasons dates back to when Patrick Mahomes was still at Texas Tech. He’s not only the NFL’s best tight end, he’s one of the league’s best pass-catchers, period. Kelce set career-highs in targets and receptions in 2022 and given the state of Kansas City’s wide receiver room, Mahomes will be hard-pressed to avoid targeting Kelce even more often this year.
Garrett Wilson, Jets
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2200
Wilson totaled 1,103 receiving yards and won Offensive Rookie of the Year in spite of New York’s quarterback play, not because of it. Now, the second-year pro will be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, one of the most talented throwers the NFL has ever seen. Even if Wilson’s volume doesn’t increase — his 147 targets were tied for seventh-most — at least more of the balls that come his way will be catchable.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2500
Smith’s numbers improved with Brown’s arrival in Philly. After 916 yards as a rookie, he went for 1,196 as Hurts’s No. 2 option. Smith saw more targets come his way as Philadelphia’s pass rate rose and he finished strong with four 100-yard games over the final six weeks. The former Heisman Trophy winner is primed to build on his breakout in 2023.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2500
Lamb’s numbers have gone up with each season, culminating in 1,359 yards in 2022, the sixth-most in the NFL. His target share exploded a year ago and he responded with his first 100-catch campaign. Dallas added Brandin Cooks in the offseason but Lamb is still Dak Prescott’s go-to option.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders
Brad Mills/USA Today network
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2800
McLaurin has managed to surpass 1,000 yards each of the past three seasons in spite of a middling amalgam of quarterbacks in Washington. He just posted 1,191 yards — a career-high — while fielding passes from Taylor Heinicke, Carson Wentz and Sam Howell, the 2023 starter. Even if the carousel continues, Jacoby Brissett is a respectable backup capable of getting McLaurin the ball.
Tee Higgins, Bengals
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2800
Higgins has gone over 1,000 yards each of the past two seasons while playing alongside Chase. Cincinnati is home to one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses, which bodes well for Higgins extending his 1,000-yard streak to three years.
Chris Olave, Saints
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +2800
Olave emerged from a middling New Orleans offense to record 1,042 yards, in 15 games no less, as a rookie. With Derek Carr replacing the combination of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, Olave should be in for even more success as a sophomore.
DK Metcalf, Seahawks
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +3300
Metcalf’s receiving totals dipped a bit in 2021 but the move from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith helped him get back over 1,000 yards as he saw the most targets of his career. With the addition of rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle has a loaded passing attack and Metcalf headlines that unit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +3300
St. Brown built on his 900-yard output as a rookie and tallied 1,161 yards in his second year on his way to a Pro Bowl nod. He’s quickly established a connection with Jared Goff and he returns for his third season in Detroit as the focal point of the offense.
Amari Cooper, Browns
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +3300
Cooper’s first season in Cleveland was a smashing success coming off a down year in Dallas. With Brissett starting more than half the games and Deshaun Watson struggling upon his return from suspension, Cooper still managed 1,160 yards, the second-most of his career.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +4000
Metcalf remains Smith’s top target, but Lockett also adjusted seamlessly to the switch from Wilson. Lockett has now cobbled together four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and his 2022 stats did not indicate that the 30-year-old is slowing down at all.
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Eric Hartline/USA Today network
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +4000
Health held Allen short of yet another 1,000-yard campaign last year, but his 75.2 yards per game average was his highest since 2017. The veteran remains a target machine and his quarterback passes more than any other signal-caller in the NFL. If Allen is active for a full season, or something close to it, he’ll do what he’s already done five times in his career.
Calvin Ridley, Jaguars
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +4000
Trevor Lawrence just helped Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram all post career years and now Ridley enters the mix after serving a yearlong suspension. It’s been a while since Ridley played a full season — 2020 to be exact — but he posted 1,374 yards that year in Atlanta. He’s set up for a monster return with the Jaguars.
Mike Williams, Chargers
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +4000
Williams was on his way to a second consecutive 1,000-yard season, and the third of his career, but injuries derailed him yet again. He missed four games and finished with 895 yards. He enjoys the same benefits as Allen with Justin Herbert under center, plus he’s a dynamic deep threat.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +4000
Aiyuk just barely broke 1,000 yards but he got over the hump and beat out Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to lead the team. The third-year pro achieved this in spite of the quarterback carousel in San Francisco. Aiyuk had some of his best games before Garoppolo went down but he also performed with Brock Purdy, the presumptive Week 1 starter.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +4000
Jeudy fell just short of this milestone in his third year in the league, finishing with 972 yards. That he came this close while missing two games and playing on a dreadful Denver offense is a testament to his talent. The blistering stretch Jeudy ended the season on is a good sign of what’s to come in what should be a more competent unit with Sean Payton at the helm.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +5000
Evans has never not had 1,000 yards in a season in his nine-year career. Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Jameis Winston, Tom Brady — it doesn’t matter who’s at quarterback. Evans will be up against it this season with Baker Mayfield and possibly Kyle Trask throwing to him, but he has his sights set on Jerry Rice’s all-time record of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons and he’s going to command the requisite number of targets to make that happen.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards: +8000
Johnson’s 2022 season was largely a letdown considering he didn’t get in the end zone or even top 900 yards despite seeing the seventh-most targets in the NFL. A second-year leap from quarterback Kenny Pickett should help Johnson return to his 2021 status when he caught more than 100 passes and tallied 1,161 yards.
